Cook Political Report - Lean R
Sabato Crystal Ball - Likely R
to the FM Senate Slate
to Tim's Campaign
“I am running to fight like hell in the U.S Senate to cut workers in on the deal,” said Ryan. “Ohioans are working harder than ever, they’re doing everything right, and they’re still falling behind. Countries all over the world are investing billions in infrastructure, education, health care, and their workforce to out-compete American businesses and workers. Our workers need a game plan to level the playing field and bring jobs home to Ohio.” (4/26/21, Campaign Announcement)
“If you think that this town's been spending too much money, that we need to reduce the deficit, we do that by hundreds of billions of dollars. If you think seniors are taking it on the chin, we help them with prescription drugs and $35 insulin payments… On top of the infrastructure bill and the CHIPS Act, we're going to build electric vehicles, electric cars, electric tractors, batteries, solar wind. We are going to rebuild the middle class. And while the other side wants to defund the FBI, we want to fund our kids' future here in the United States.” (8/12/22- House of Representatives speech in support of Inflation Reduction Act)
“Kickstarting Ohio’s economy starts with: investing in clean energy jobs; making high-speed internet a reality in every community; bringing back shop class and skilled jobs training”. (8/12/22, Twitter)
Rep. Tim Ryan has represented Ohio’s Youngstown areas for some 20 years.
The ten-term Congressman is running in an open seated vacated by Rob Portman (R). His opponent is JD Vance who won a difficult and expensive primary aided by an endorsement from Donald Trump.
Before his election to Congress in 2002, Ryan served as President of the Trumbull County Young Democrats and Chairman of the Earning by Learning program in Warren Ohio. He worked as a congressional aid in 1995 and subsequently served in the Ohio State Senate where he worked on issues like the earned income tax credit and community school data reporting.
Ryan earned a law degree from the University of New Hampshire and a bachelor’s in political science from Bowling Green State University.
In Congress, Ryan has been a champion on economic and quality of life issues in Northeast Ohio. As co-chairman of the Congressional Manufacturing Caucus, Ryan has worked towards restoring the global competitiveness of the U.S. manufacturing sector. The Caucus focuses on creating policies to find trained workers, develop new technology, and to operate on a level playing field relative to global competitors.
Tim Ryan’s website elaborates other issues that speak to his priorities:
Cut workers in on the deal
Rebuild our country
Invest in affordable health care
Give seniors a pay raise
Create new opportunities for rural Ohio
End racial disparity
Keep Ohio safe
Modernize our immigration system
Strengthen our democracy
Protect Reproductive Freedom
Standi with LGBTQ+ Ohioans
While Ohio is now seen as a red state, the 2022 Republican Primary left Vance in serious debt – and vulnerable – creating opportunity for a Democratic pick-up. Despite Ohio’s strong Republican leanings, progressive Sherrod Brown has served as Ohio Senator since 2007. Ryan, who is actively courting Trump voters, disaffected Republicans and independents, has been described as a moderate Democrat from “a post-industrial, Trump-friendly district” in a state that Trump won by 8 % in 2020.
Ryan has consistently run ahead of Vance in polling, money raised, and money spent. However, this race is expected to tighten in all these aspects.
The website Crowdwisdom (7/23/22) has summarized the race:
“Vance is struggling as he loses momentum amongst Republicans as well as Ohio’s large independent voter base. The election is likely be close as Republicans are likely to line up for Vance as we head closer to election day.
“1 in 5 women are yet to make up their mind and Ryan leads Vance by 19% amongst women. With Roe vs Wade overturned and a majority of Ohio voters supporting Roe vs Wade, Vance has a challenging task ahead. On the other hand, TimRyan would hope for a mild recession and a fall in gas prices before the election in November. Economic issues are the number 1 voting criterion and Ryan could be in trouble if the economy goes southwards before November.”
COMMITTEES + CAUCUSES
Committee on Appropriations
Legislative Branch (Chair)
Defense, Military Construction, Veterans Affairs and Related Agencies
Congressional Caucus Addiction Treatment and Recovery (Co-chair); Manufacturing Caucus
International Conservation Caucus
Congressional Arts Caucus
Ohio River Basin Caucus
Medicare for All Caucus
Blue Collar Caucus
Dozens of leading labor organizations including: Ohio State Building and Trades Council, Ohio AFL-CIO, Communications Workers of America, Ironworkers, Ohio Nursing Association, UAW, United Steelworkers, Workers United
Many dozens of county, municipal, and state elected officials as well as activists and party leaders.